Preparations for the upcoming general elections in Israel have intensified, presenting a major political crisis for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A decisive victory for Israel in the ongoing war with Iran and Lebanon could give him an edge in the elections, whereas a prolonged conflict could diminish his popularity.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon have to fix the date for the next general elections, but the ongoing war on multiple fronts could influence this decision. Amidst the increasing conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, the direction of his political future may also be determined. The Netanyahu government is in the final phase of its four-year term, and it is mandatory to hold elections by October. However, he also has the option to conduct elections earlier, as has often happened in Israeli politics.
If Israel achieves a decisive victory in the war against Iran, it could boost Netanyahu’s popularity, leading him to decide on early elections. He could present this as his diplomatic and military success, especially regarding close relations with the United States.
However, current circumstances seem to weaken this possibility. Even three weeks after the start of the war, Iran is continuously carrying out missile attacks, affecting the lives of common people.
Meanwhile, the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon is also intensifying.
War Outcomes to Decide Netanyahu’s Future
Recent surveys indicate that the Israeli public supports the war, but the direct benefit of this is not reaching Netanyahu and his coalition.
In such a situation, experts believe he would prefer to utilize his full term by postponing the elections. In a press conference last week, Netanyahu signaled that elections could be held in September or October. This might give him some more time to improve his popularity.
However, a prolonged war could also increase difficulties for him. Rising military losses and public dissatisfaction, especially due to Hezbollah’s attacks in Northern Israel, could affect his support. Internationally, there is also a risk of increasing differences with the US due to a long-drawn-out war.
Additionally, international criticism regarding the Gaza war and allegations in the International Criminal Court (ICC) could also impact his image.
The beginning of September could be the most suitable time for general elections in Israel, as a long period of festivals begins after that, and holding elections near October 7 (the anniversary of the Hamas attack) could be politically sensitive. Overall, for Benjamin Netanyahu, this election is not just a fight for power but will also decide his political future and legacy.
