Following the breakdown of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the conflict between the two nations has intensified once again. Amidst continuous attacks, Iran has now awakened and is preparing to make a move that could cause global chaos. If Iran plays this card, a major crisis in oil and gas supply could emerge. According to reports, Iran has signaled to Yemen’s Houthi rebels that if the US launches major attacks on its oil plants and other critical energy infrastructure, they could close the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea.
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After Hormuz – now Bab el-Mandeb is in the crosshairs
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For the world, the Strait of Hormuz is already a critically important maritime route, through which a large quantity of crude oil is supplied. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also closed, the supply of oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe, Asia, and Africa could be severely affected. This raises the prospect of both a global energy crisis and increased inflation. According to a Reuters report, sources associated with the Houthi organization claim that missiles and drones have been deployed around the Bab el-Mandeb. The rebels are now just waiting for the final order. It is reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will decide when and how the strait should be closed.
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Major impact on oil supply
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According to the vessel-tracking organization Kpler, approximately 7.4 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Bab el-Mandeb daily in June, which is about 7 percent of global production. During the same period last year, this figure was approximately 4.2 million barrels per day. Due to the increasing threat in the Strait of Hormuz, the importance of this route has increased further in recent months. In view of the danger, Saudi Arabia has started sending its large oil shipments via the Yanbu port located on the Red Sea. Additionally, it is considering increasing the capacity of the pipeline that transports crude oil to the Red Sea. In such a situation, if the Bab el-Mandeb is also closed, both major maritime routes in the Gulf region will be affected.
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Why has concern increased for India ?
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The impact of this crisis could also affect India. India meets a large part of its energy needs through imported crude oil. Oil from Gulf countries mainly comes through the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian Ural crude oil reaches Indian ports via the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb. If both routes are disrupted, India’s oil supply could be affected, shipping costs could rise, and there could be additional pressure on energy prices, including petrol and diesel. Experts believe that if the conflict between the US and Iran escalates further and movement is obstructed on both major maritime routes, it could lead to a sharp spike in crude oil prices in the international market. This would affect economies across the world, and the energy crisis could become more severe than ever before.
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