The BJP government at the Centre had faced a major jolt amidst the assembly elections. The Women’s Reservation Amendment and the Delimitation Bill had fallen in the Lok Sabha. Even though Rahul Gandhi might take credit as the Congress is the largest opposition party, the reality is that the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal played a crucial role at that time.
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The need to mention the Trinamool Congress and DMK afresh arises because both parties have been ousted from power in their respective states. And they have not just been ousted; following the MLAs, TMC MPs have also revolted, which could directly benefit the BJP in the Monsoon Session.
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According to reports, the BJP may re-introduce the Women’s Reservation Amendment Bill and the Delimitation Bill in Parliament during the Monsoon Session—the question is, what are the chances of both bills being passed in the changed political circumstances?
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Possibility of Women’s Reservation – Delimitation Bill in Monsoon Session
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In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure of the last 12 years, this was the first instance where a Constitutional Amendment Bill introduced by the Central Government was defeated in the House. 298 votes were cast in support of the amendment to the law to provide 33 percent reservation to women in Parliament and the Delimitation Bill, while 230 votes were cast against the bills. In fact, the Delimitation Bill, brought with the objective of re-determining the number of Lok Sabha constituencies to implement women’s reservation, was linked with the Women’s Reservation Amendment.
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Although the BJP has fully recovered from the major jolt received during the assembly elections, the leadership must be feeling that the mission remains incomplete until both bills are passed by Parliament – and this is why the BJP government is making efforts to bring both bills again in the Monsoon Session and get them passed.
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The BJP had been waiting for a long time for the election victory in West Bengal. After several serious attempts, the victory was finally achieved. Even though Thalapathy Vijay’s government may have been formed with the change of power in Tamil Nadu, the defeat of the DMK is certainly comforting for the BJP. If the AIADMK could have returned to power, it would have been even better for the BJP, its alliance partner. The DMK had celebrated the bill’s defeat in Parliament as a victory even before the voting and had even changed its election campaign strategy.
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The phase of destruction that started in the Trinamool Congress is continuing. The DMK leadership is also apprehensive. In any case, after the Aam Aadmi Party’s 7 MPs left, there would hardly be any political party in the opposition camp that is not scared. There is news that the BJP has contacted regional parties afresh. And, in this matter, there are reports of the DMK adopting a softer stance as well. In any case, after breaking the alliance and going with Congress Chief Minister Vijay’s TVK, the DMK has also become free to explore new paths and equations. It is being heard that the DMK is waiting for a new draft and a written proposal of the bill from the Central Government. It would not be possible for the DMK to flip suddenly, but a middle path can certainly be found.
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How Much Will the Rajya Sabha Elections Matter?
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Elections for 24 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states of the country are going to be held on June 18. And, out of these, victory was already considered certain for the BJP on 10 seats. Now, one more seat from Madhya Pradesh is being added to this. After the rejection of Meenakshi Natarajan’s nomination, it has become certain that the BJP will get 3 Rajya Sabha seats from Madhya Pradesh. It is certain that the BJP will get all four Rajya Sabha seats from Gujarat. It may get 2 seats from Rajasthan. It is going to get 1-1 seats from Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Due to a shortage of numbers in Jharkhand, BJP leader Babulal Marandi has announced support for an independent candidate.
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The BJP has 113 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. And, if we talk about the entire NDA, this number is 148. Still, it is short of 15 seats for a two-thirds majority. 163 MPs are needed for a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha. The point is that two TMC MPs have resigned, so the figure for a majority will also decrease. After Rajya Sabha MP Sukhendu Sekhar Ray, Sushmita Dev has also resigned. Sushmita Dev has also met Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, which has clarified the future plan.
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Number Game Changing in Lok Sabha
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In the changed atmosphere, the number game in the Lok Sabha is also changing. After the revolt by Trinamool Congress MPs, it has become certain. The rebel TMC MPs, led by Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, have also written to the Speaker to sit separately and be recognized as a separate group.
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A list of 19 such MPs who consider Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar their leader has surfaced, which includes the names of Yusuf Pathan and Shatrughan Sinha along with Sayani Ghosh. The way Kakoli Ghosh participated in the administrative meeting with the area’s MLAs along with Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, the intentions were clear then.
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Now, if the DMK is ready to support and there is the backing of the rebel TMC MPs, it will become easy for the BJP to get both bills passed. If something falls short, efforts can be made to manage that as well.
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