By – Jawahar Mishra
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The results of the Bihar assembly elections have made the horoscope of the Congress and the entire opposition alliance somewhat clearer as to where the fate and future of the opposition parties in this alliance will go in the future.
In this context, it can be said that now this defeat has put the entire opposition alliance on the Titanic ship sinking in the political ocean, the ship of which is the self-proclaimed captain of the so-called Yuvraj of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi.
In this context, here is a factual assessment of what the fate of the grand alliance formed by the Congress and the opposition parties in the Bihar elections will be and how far their progress will be hampered.
The poor performance of the Indian National Congress (INC) in the recent Bihar Assembly elections, where it won a significantly low number of seats, has led to intense scrutiny and debate about the future of the party, the opposition alliance, and Rahul Gandhi’s role.
Here is an analysis of the possible future scenarios for each:
🇮🇳 Future of the Congress Party
The Bihar election results are seen by many as a major setback and a continuation of the party’s electoral struggles in key states.
Internal Pressure and Dissent: The disastrous result (winning only 6 seats out of 61 contested, down from 19 in 2020) is likely to intensify existing internal pressure and dissent within the party. There is a serious worry that the defeat could revive public airing of grievances, demands for change in leadership, and possibly even defections.
Organizational Overhaul
The party’s weak organizational structure in states like Bihar has been highlighted as a critical failure. The future of Congress will likely depend on its willingness and ability to undertake a deep, ground-up organizational and strategic restructuring to connect with local issues and voters.
Strategy Review
The Congress leadership has stated they will conduct a detailed review of the results. The focus is expected to be on fixing campaign strategy—especially the balance between national narratives (like “protecting the Constitution”) and addressing pressing local concerns (like development and jobs) that seem to have resonated more with the Bihar electorate.
🤝 Future of the Opposition Alliance (Mahagathbandhan/INDIA Bloc)
The collapse of the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar is a blow, and the Congress is widely being called the “weak link” in the alliance.
Questioning Congress’s Role
The poor strike rate of the Congress is fueling arguments among other regional opposition parties, such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), that the INC cannot be relied upon to convert votes into seats. This may lead to less space and fewer seats for Congress in future alliance negotiations in other states.
Need for a Stronger Regional Leader: The alliance’s success in other states will now depend on the strength of its regional partners. The Bihar result emphasizes that the opposition needs strong local leaders and well-coordinated seat-sharing that prevents vote splitting.
Focus on Coalition Building
The alliance’s future hinges on its ability to forge a cohesive strategy where regional parties take the lead in their strongholds while the Congress plays a more supportive role, leveraging its pan-India presence strategically, rather than contesting on weak seats.
👤 Future of Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi remains the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and a central figure in both the Congress party and the INDIA alliance, yet the Bihar result poses challenges.
Accountability and Scrutiny
P As a key campaigner and one of the faces of the party, the defeat intensifies scrutiny on his leadership and strategic calls. Critics within and outside the party may question his approach and disconnect from the ground reality.
Shift in Focus: He has stated that the party and the INDIA bloc will conduct a detailed review and “make their efforts to save democracy even more effective.” His immediate focus remains on intensifying the political and ideological fight against the ruling party at the national level, continuing his campaign on issues like “protecting the Constitution.”
Role in Alliance: His role within the alliance may need to evolve. To maintain credibility with alliance partners, there is a perceived need for him to demonstrate a renewed commitment to a pragmatic, state-specific, and result-oriented approach. Some opinions suggest the Congress needs to realize that its strategy cannot always revolve solely around him.
In summary, the Bihar debacle is a moment of crisis that demands deep introspection and drastic changes for the Congress. For the entire opposition alliance, it signals a need to re-evaluate their seat-sharing arrangements and prioritize strong regional leadership over national-level influence in state elections.
