The impact of Donald Trump’s war with Iran has been seen first on Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. Meloni has suffered a crushing defeat in a referendum held regarding judicial reforms in Italy.
This is the first time since 2022 that Meloni has faced a setback in an election. If the mood of the voters remains the same, Meloni’s position could be at risk in the future, as general elections for the post of Prime Minister are proposed in Italy next year.
According to local media, 54 percent of people voted against the Meloni government in the referendum held on judicial reforms. Because of this, PM Meloni will no longer be able to interfere extensively in Italy’s judiciary.
How is this an impact of Trump’s war?
The Survey: A survey agency named YouGov conducted a poll before the referendum. According to it, 77 percent of Italy’s public expressed dissatisfaction with the Meloni government’s functioning. The main issue for the public was the sudden rise in energy prices due to the war. Italian citizens stated that they are paying the highest rates for electricity in Europe. They fear the situation could worsen due to the war.
Alignment with Trump: According to Politico, Meloni tried to portray herself as close to Trump after 2024. On several occasions when European leaders were against Trump, Meloni openly supported him. Before the referendum, a perception grew among ordinary citizens that the country could be dragged into the war in the coming times. Meloni was unable to break this perception.
Response to Conflict: Meloni condemned the attack on the Minab school in Iran in the Italian Parliament, but she could not say anything against Trump. Italy’s opposition leaders capitalized heavily on this issue. Italy’s Left-wing party, which was in the fray against Meloni, linked this judicial reform referendum to dictatorship.
Public Sentiment: According to the Italian outlet Decode-39, the people of Italy are angry with Trump. This has been observed in several surveys. Indirectly, Meloni had to bear the brunt of this. According to Euromedia, 58 percent of Italian citizens want their troops to be withdrawn from the Middle East. They want Italy to maintain a distance from Washington and Israel.
Impact on the European Union (EU):
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Meloni’s defeat is a significant signal not only for Italy but for the entire Europe. Its impact can be understood through the following points:
1. A Brake on the ‘Right-wing’ Wave in Europe
For the past few years, Meloni was seen as a powerful Right-wing leader in Europe. Following this defeat, the confidence of parties with similar ideologies in other EU countries may decline. This proves that the public does not favor excessive centralization of power or interference in judicial independence.
2. Difficulty in Balancing between Trump and Europe
Meloni has been portraying herself as being close to Donald Trump. However, most countries in the European Union do not support Trump’s “Iran policy.” This public mandate from Italians indicates that they do not want Italy to be involved in Trump’s war policy. Consequently, Meloni will have to maintain coordination with other prominent EU leaders (such as those from France or Germany) in the coming days.
3. Economic and Energy Crisis
Rising oil and gas prices due to the Iran war are a major problem for Italy. If the Meloni government fails to curb this crisis, it will also have a negative impact on the economic condition of the European Union, as Italy is the third-largest economy in the EU.
4. Blow to Meloni’s Image as an ‘Influential Leader’
Meloni held a special influence in EU meetings. However, after losing public support in her own country, her voice in the sphere of European policy-making may weaken.
Conclusion:
Although Meloni will not resign immediately, this defeat has put her on the “defensive.” Instead of supporting Trump directly, she will now try to satisfy the public mandate of her country, which could be a significant turning point for the EU’s collective strategy.
