By- Jawahar Mishra
…………………………………………………………………….
The Congress Party entered the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections with great ambitions. It contested 70 seats as part of the Grand Alliance, but the results were disappointing, winning only 19 seats and achieving a weak strike rate of 27 percent. This performance proved to be the Achilles’ heel for the alliance led by Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The alliance won 110 seats in the 243-member assembly, falling just 12 short of a majority.
The post-election scrutiny was swift and harsh. The Congress party’s lackluster campaign, weak coordination with the RJD, and Rahul Gandhi’s irregular presence turned a potential victory into a defeat. The alliance had the numbers, but lacked coordination on the ground.
Preparing to repeat the same story in 2025
The picture looks much the same in October 2025. Voting in Bihar will take place in two phases on November 6 and 11, with counting scheduled for November 14. Yet, this time too, Congress appears to be the weak link in the Indian bloc.
While the NDA swiftly finalized its seat-sharing formula, with the BJP and JDU getting 101 seats each, and smaller allies like the LJP (RV) getting 29 seats, the Grand Alliance (RJD, Congress, Left parties, and Vikassheel Insaan Party) is still sparring over seat-sharing.
This isn’t just a delay, but the same arrogant confidence of 2020 that could give the NDA an early lead, especially given the strong anti-incumbency sentiment in the state due to Nitish Kumar’s flip-flop.
Conflict over seat sharing
The root of the alliance’s impasse is Congress’s demand for more than 60 seats, which allies consider impractical because the party’s ground hold is so weak.
In 2020, Congress’s seat overreach also led to the alliance’s defeat; even RJD’s 75 seats couldn’t compensate for Congress’s weakness. Now, history risks repeating itself.
According to sources, Lalu Prasad Yadav has offered 52–58 seats to Congress. Some seats, such as Bachhwara, Aurai, Harlakhi, Matihani, and Parbatta, are still under discussion. Meanwhile, CPI(ML) leader Dipankar Bhattacharya has advised Congress to return to reality and focus only on winnable seats.
Despite this, the Congress Central Election Committee has given the green light to 25 candidates and directed the Bihar unit to prepare for 243 seats. This is being seen by allies as brinkmanship or a preparation to contest the elections separately.
Reaction on social media has been sharp. One user wrote, “Without any organization or ground presence, the Congress’s demand for 65-70 seats is extremely shameful.”
Campaign Gaps
Rahul Gandhi’s “Vote Adhikar Yatra,” a 1,300-km walk from Gaya to Patna, generated some buzz in August. Its purpose was to raise awareness about the alleged deletion of 6.5 million names during the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision. However, what initially appeared promising gradually eroded the campaign’s credibility.
Even after a report by the Reporters Collective revealed nearly 1.5 million duplicate voters, Rahul Gandhi left the campaign incomplete, raising questions about Congress’s seriousness.
Rahul Gandhi’s Absence and Misdirected Message
As seat-sharing negotiations reached a crucial stage in late September, Rahul Gandhi embarked on a tour of Latin America, visiting Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya quipped, “While Bihar is burning, Rahul Gandhi is learning to make coffee in Colombia.”
Congress tried to explain by releasing photos of Rahul Gandhi’s foreign trips, where he was discussing India’s “deteriorating scientific temper,” but by then the damage had been done.
On October 13, when Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav arrived in Delhi for the IRCTC scam hearing, Tejashwi met with Congress leaders, but Rahul Gandhi neither attended the meeting, nor posed for photographs, nor made any statement. This silence spoke volumes.
Opportunities and Risks
Meanwhile, the RJD and the Left parties have gained ground. Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of 1 million jobs is resonating with the youth. Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj Party is preparing to contest all 243 seats.
AIMIM, which was denied a place in the India bloc, is contesting 100 seats in Seemanchal, which is sure to divide the Muslim vote.
In such a scenario, the Congress’s weak organizational capabilities and unstable leadership could once again prove decisive.
Bihar, with its 79 million voters and always a hotbed of political upheaval, offers a significant opportunity for the India bloc to challenge the Nitish Kumar-Modi duo of the NDA.
But if the Congress repeats the same mistakes of 2020: greed for seats, poor performance, and neglect of allies, it could once again spell defeat at the doorstep of victory. The chessboard is set. The pieces are ready. Now, November will tell who will suffer a political defeat.
