The BJP plans to adopt the Gujarat model for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The party may take major steps to counter the anti-incumbency wave, such as changing candidates and fielding prominent leaders. Efforts are underway to implement the strategy adopted in Gujarat for the 2022 elections in Bihar. The party’s priority is to gain public support by taking strong measures against anti-incumbency.
Two Surveys Raise BJP’s Tension
Preparations for the Bihar Assembly elections are in full swing. All parties are using all means to secure their own advantage so that they can retain power for the next five years. Meanwhile, the BJP is now planning to replicate the Gujarat strategy in the Assembly elections. Similar to the model adopted in Gujarat, the BJP may take several major steps to counter the anti-incumbency wave in Bihar. The party is preparing to implement the same strategy in Bihar as it did in the 2022 Gujarat elections. Under this strategy, the BJP will attempt to turn the growing resentment against the ruling party in its favor.
The Gujarat model and its success
The BJP has been in power in Gujarat continuously since 1995, and before the 2022 elections, there was widespread talk of anti-incumbency against the party. Public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic was evident, and the Morbi bridge accident further exacerbated the situation. To address this challenge, the BJP took a major step a year before the elections. The party replaced then-Chief Minister Vijay Rupani with Bhupendra Patel. This was accompanied by a complete cabinet reshuffle to signal a change in the party’s governance. Subsequently, the tickets of 45 of the 99 MLAs who won in 2017 were cancelled. With these decisions, the BJP sent the message that if the public had any dissatisfaction with the 2017 government, that government had now been completely replaced. This strategy paid off, and the BJP achieved a historic victory in the 2022 assembly elections, winning 156 seats in the 182-seat assembly.
Strategy to Implement Gujarat Model in Bihar
With the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar, the BJP is now considering adopting a strategy similar to that of Gujarat. The party plans to field prominent leaders and is also preparing to make large-scale candidate changes. The BJP faces several challenges in Bihar, and this strategy is being adopted to address them.
Challenges Facing the BJP in Bihar
The BJP faces several challenges in Bihar, forcing the party to adopt a Gujarat-style strategy. The biggest challenges are anti-incumbency and public anger against ruling MLAs. Protests are taking place against ruling BJP MLAs in various areas. For example, on September 22nd, BJP MLA Vijay Khemka was protested in Purnia Sadar, while on August 25th, protesters in Patna pelted stones at Health Minister Mangal Pandey’s convoy. JDU Minister Shravan Kumar and MLA Krishna Murari have also faced protests.
Furthermore, the serious allegations leveled against BJP leaders by Jansuraj leader Prashant Kishore have exacerbated the party’s difficulties. He even accused Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary of being an accused in a murder case. In this situation, the BJP feels the need to adopt a new strategy.
The BJP also faces challenges regarding Nitish Kumar’s health and the state of power. Some people believe that Nitish Kumar is not mentally healthy and the government is being run entirely by bureaucrats and other leaders.
BJP’s Candidate Selection and Change Plans in Bihar
The BJP’s central core group has planned extensive changes to candidate selection in Bihar. However, several reports have stated that the political landscape in Bihar is different from that of Gujarat, so this change cannot be on the scale of Gujarat.
The BJP has decided that it needs to field new and clean faces in the elections. There are plans to change the candidate selection in the 36 seats where the BJP lost in the 2020 assembly elections.
The BJP has also learned a significant lesson from Karnataka. The denial of tickets to several candidates in Karnataka led to protests, and the party suffered losses. The constraints of the alliance also pose a significant challenge for the BJP. The Bihar elections will be fought in alliance with three or four parties, and caste considerations must be considered.
The BJP is fielding its heavyweights in Bihar. The party high command has planned to field several ministers and leaders as candidates in the assembly elections. Leaders like Samrat Chaudhary, Janak Ram, Hari Sahni, and Mangal Pandey are preparing to contest the MLA elections.
Election Preparations and Organizational Work
The BJP conducted two surveys for all seats in Bihar in August and September, the reports of which have been presented to the Central Committee. Following this, discussions have begun within the party regarding ticket distribution.
In preparation for the elections, the party has appointed Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan as in-charge of Bihar. BJP President JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah also visited Bihar and held meetings with regional leaders.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is also preparing its ground in Bihar. Its workers, modeled after Delhi, are going door-to-door to meet voters in Bihar. Thus, the BJP is preparing to adopt the Gujarat model in Bihar. However, a major issue here is that in Gujarat, the party can change the Chief Minister, whereas in Bihar, this is unlikely, as Nitish Kumar is more likely to be appointed Chief Minister after the election results.
