India, which was previously dependent on imports of foreign weapons and ammunition, is now not only moving towards self-reliance, but has also become an exporter of weapons. Instead of lamenting the ongoing geopolitical instability in the world, India’s current political leadership has started seeing new opportunities for the country in this instability. For decades, India has been the largest importer of Russian weapons. Many types of weapons still come from there, but India is now rapidly increasing its production capacity. The geopolitical changes resulting from Russia’s long-running war against Ukraine are accelerating this growth.
Decreasing dependence on Russia:
India’s dependence on Russia in the field of weapons has reduced by about 50 percent. The Russo-Ukraine war is considered a major reason for this reduction. Russia is no longer the undisputed future of India’s strategic plan. The Indian government is giving more importance to diversifying defense production. Besides Russia, the US, Israel, France and, increasingly, Germany are also playing a role. Russia has long been India’s main military ally. The backbone of the Indian military – fighter jets, tanks, submarines – has been dependent on it for decades. But after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the unintended consequences of this one-sided dependence began to emerge. Many things were delayed or orders were canceled. India began to rethink its approach, and is now investing heavily to expand its capabilities.
Economic and geopolitical goals: Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched his Make in India campaign in 2014. But since 2022, the campaign has gained new momentum, especially in the defence industry. Tejas fighter jets, Arjun battle tanks and locally manufactured ammunition: Indian factories are now operating at full capacity.
Exports are also growing – estimated to cross $5 billion by 2029. 50 percent of Indian defence exports already go to the US; it remains to be seen what the tariff war initiated by the odd US President Donald Trump will do. Otherwise, there are indications that India will play a significant role in the global defence manufacturing supply chain.
Strong growth in the private sector: Currently, the private sector, including the space and aviation sectors, is experiencing particularly strong growth. This was triggered by the country’s economic needs. India has to spend a lot of foreign exchange to buy weapons from Russia, the US, Israel and France. At the same time, India also wants to demonstrate its power, especially in the so-called ‘global south’. Indian policymakers believe that ‘why should only the US or China supply these countries with weapons? Countries like India can also play their role!’
The growth in India is now attracting European companies to come to India – the latest example is Quantum Systems, a drone company from the German state of Bavaria, which is setting up a new center in India. The company supplies spy drones to Ukraine and other countries.
Growth in India is attracting European companies to India – the latest example is Quantum Systems, a drone company from the German state of Bavaria, which is setting up a new center in India. The company supplies surveillance drones to countries including Ukraine and is now looking to strengthen its presence in India.
Partnership with India: For Martin Karkor, head of sales at Quantum Systems, “India is not a new market, we are strengthening our partnership in India with this new center.” For the company, the appeal of manufacturing in India is not just about low costs: it is also about the skills that it believes need to be developed in India.
The company wants to work on an equal footing with local partners in India and protect its technical specifications. It does not want its drone technology to be copied. Its new production facility in India is expected to be operational by the end of this year.
India’s own rules: India is also setting its own rules in defense production. It is not a country forced to choose between Russia and the West. India is focusing on strategic openness in all directions: Russia for the Eurasian region, the US and Europe for the Indo-Pacific region – and Africa and Southeast Asia as major markets for its defense products. At the same time, India’s eastern proximity to Russia is declining. Defense cooperation with Russia will continue, but Russia will not be a role model for the future.
Geopolitical crisis is an opportunity: Many experts believe that India is taking advantage of the vacuum created by today’s geopolitical uncertainty, even if it sometimes causes unease in Europe. When Europe and the United States disagree, space is created for new possibilities – India can fill this space with its ideas and interests. From this perspective, the crisis in the current world order is not necessarily for India.
The current situation in the world can also be a historic opportunity for India. The new eccentricity of the current US President Donald Trump has made life difficult for his own close friends and devotees in the European countries of the NATO military organization created by the US. An autocratic Russia or a similar China is not a worthy alternative for these European countries. Due to their arrogant nature, as much as they have been criticizing and ignoring India till now, as much as they have been scolding Prime Minister Modi, like a ‘disgruntled cat scratching a post’, now they also praise Modi and India in a quiet voice from time to time.
India’s defense investment: India invests less than 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense – Trump has set a target of 5% for NATO member countries. India’s geopolitical position is such that it has a 15,000 km long disputed border. There have been many wars with Pakistan and there have been border clashes with China, there are tensions. India still does not spend as much on weapons as these two neighbors and many other countries.
